Crew v. Chivas: Grey Skies Are Gonna Clear Up…

By: Jeff | May 11th, 2007

…and you know the rest (it’s “put on a happy face” for those who don’t).

As you’ll see above, the trade for Alejandro Moreno makes a little more sense once Columbus Crew coach Sigi Schmid frames it correctly. Between that change, Guillermo Schelotto having another week with the team, and Chivas USA’s suck-suck-sucky all-time road record, this seems as good a crack at three, momentum-building points as any; true, there’s the late May encounter with Toronto FC on the horizon, but a look at June’s schedule makes the case for getting a little wind beneath the wings before wrestling that surly thing.

To look at the Chivas’ road woes in depth, they go beyond this year’s glorious 0-3-0. The same team that turned the Home Depot Center into Fortress Chivas in 2006 (it’s not the record so much as the goals against), compiled a 3-7-6 road record the same season. Add in the hurt 2005 put on Chivas and the record shows a wretched 5-21-10 all-time.

Happier news still comes in the crucial goals-conceded statistic: of the 115 goals ever conceded by Chivas, 73 came on the road. Coming over the course of 35 total games, the Goats are good for over 2 goals per game. Surely, even the goal-shy, yet new-look, Crew can knock in half the average. And from there, they can ride they’re thoroughly competent defense to the win. Surely…

Why They Will…
Not only does Chivas travel badly, the wins they did manage this year came against Toronto FC and Real Salt Lake. Even their seeming strength - a quick (Maykel Galindo) and powerful (Ante Razov) - withers to an anemic two-goal tally against stronger opposition (and lumping DC United in this “stronger” category is by no means obvious). Better still for the Crew defense, Chivas’ speed threat (Galindo) tends to run wide, where he’ll find Frankie Hejduk on one side and Rusty Pierce on the other.

UPDATE: Geez Louise. I forgot to mention Chivas’ other left-sided threat: Francisco “Panchito” Mendoza; fortunately, I was reminded up reading Ridge Mahoney’s quality weekend teaser in Soccer America. I still, however, stand by my take-away: I think the Crew is fast enough on the flanks, and good enough to cover where they aren’t (Gonzalez for Pierce) that I think they’ll handle them all right. OK, back to it…

On the other side of the field, the Crew face a cobbled-together defense featuring some jittery youths (Lawson Vaughn has been other than rock-like), an aging Mexican legend (Claudio Suarez), and a journeyman left-back (Alex Zotinca). The bright spot for Chivas comes with the recent availability of Shavar Thomas, but he’s unlikely to have completely settled as yet. With so many weaknesses to exploit, yes, even the Crew should be able to pick up a goal.

Why They Won’t…
The Crew needs to not only control the tempo, but to possess the ball better than last weekend versus Kansas City when they repeatedly lumped the ball over their midfield (see first entry under “The Bad”). If Chivas gets the Crew chasing, the odds of them springing Galindo behind the defense, or of Razov working through a gap something like double. Ditto going the other way: Chivas defense would love nothing more than to knock down long passes over the top and dump them back to Brad Guzan. Assuming the Crew can set up a bit, they stand a decent shot of breaking through as Kevin Harmse did for the Galaxy a couple weeks back with something basic as a give-and-go. Moreover, make them chase the game and they’ll spread wide for a counter. But this starts with keeping their midfield from settling and, if the Crew can manage possession like they did over the first few games, that will happen by default.

Big Picture
With only one result on the wrong side of the ledger, the Crew retains the ability to shape the script on the current season. A win here makes last week’s loss loom smaller - especially seeing as winning requires, y’know, scoring. And a goal or two would change the book on this team - even against Chivas. At stake here is avoiding reaching must-win situations. With that ugly run of games coming in June (Chicago Fire, followed by Houston, followed by New England, followed by KC, followed by the Galaxy, followed by Red Bull - hey, at least they alternate home and away), the more wins the Crew have going in, the better they’ll weather adversity. Put another way, a few draws and a win in that tough month won’t look so bad with a brighter May behind them.

Moreover, it’s not a given the East will be as tight this year as it was in 2006. Thus far, it’s setting up as a have/have-not affair. If the Crew gets too far on the wrong side of that, their season could be over by the All-Star Break. So, Chivas isn’t must-win, but they’ll be a damn sight better off if they do it. And, crucially, thing is that they ought to be good for it.

Further Reading:
MLSnet.com Preview
Some thoughts on how Chivas will line up from Sideline Views